When it comes to farming, decision-making isn’t just science—it’s an art form. Every season, growers face choices that can make or break a year: when to sow, how much nitrogen to apply, whether to invest in new machinery, or even when it’s time to expand.

But how do you make the right call when the risks are high and the outcomes are uncertain? Should you trust your gut, or back your decision with data?

In our latest FarmTalk podcast, Nick Paltridge sits down with Rick Llewellyn from CSIRO, the project lead for the national GRDC RiskWi$e Project, to explore how farmers balance instinct and analysis in their decision-making.

Gut Feel vs Good Data – Is It One or the Other?

Rick shares how RiskWi$e has been uncovering the different ways farmers approach big decisions. Some rely heavily on gut instinct, honed by years of experience. Others take a more analytical route, crunching numbers, reviewing past results, and leaning on decision-making tools.

The real insight? You don’t have to pick a side. Great decision-making often involves a blend of both—trusting your gut when appropriate, but knowing when to pause, recalibrate, and check the data.

Why Review Matters (Even When Things Go Wrong)

One of the biggest takeaways from RiskWi$e is that reviewing decisions, especially the ones that didn’t turn out as planned, is crucial. Sometimes a poor outcome isn’t due to a bad decision, but to unavoidable uncertainty after the decision was made (think weather shocks or market shifts).

By reviewing not just the outcome but the process behind the decision, growers can fine-tune their instincts and sharpen their decision rules for future seasons.

What’s Next for RiskWi$e?

RiskWi$e isn’t just looking at agronomy. It’s digging into big-ticket challenges like machinery investment, autonomous farming, land expansion, and how technology is shaping the way decisions are made on the ground.

With RiskWi$e continuing through to 2028, there’s more to come, including local Mallee case studies and fresh insights from long-term nitrogen strategies.

Listen to the full conversation with Rick Llewellyn on this week’s MSF FarmTalk podcast, available here or wherever you get your podcasts.

This podcast and blog is proudly supported by the Murraylands and Riverland Landscape Board through funding from the Landscape Levies and the GRDC RiskWi$e Project.